Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.
The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.
Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024
1,000
3.00Putin declares that the conflict has "acquired elements of global nature"
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@EnricoCaminiti can you confirm which countries you're considering "the super powers" for the resolution for this market, so there isn't any debate if a new war is declared?
Mainly nuclear powers and/or any powerful entity capable of deploying troops en masse. For example, if the EU started sending some troops to Ukraine, it would be a significant step but not a resolution for this market unless mass conscription is adopted by both the EU and Russia.
I understand that the dynamics of this market are subject to interpretability. However, to establish a general framework, I'd vouch for the following (the list is not exhaustive but should give a general view):
The concept of "nuclear powers" generally refers to countries that possess nuclear weapons and the capability to deploy them. The major nuclear powers include:
United States
Russia
China
France
United Kingdom
India
Pakistan
North Korea
Israel is also widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although it has not officially confirmed this.
In terms of deploying troops en masse, the ability to mobilize and sustain large-scale military operations involves several factors such as the size of the military, logistical capabilities, economic resources, and political will. Here are some powerful entities capable of such deployments:
United States: With the largest defense budget in the world, the U.S. has significant capabilities to deploy troops globally, supported by extensive logistical infrastructure.
Russia: As the largest country in the world with a significant military force, Russia has demonstrated the ability to deploy large numbers of troops, as seen in conflicts such as the ongoing situation in Ukraine.
China: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the largest standing military force in the world. China has been expanding its global military presence, particularly in the South China Sea and through initiatives like the Belt and Road.
European Union: While the EU is not a single military entity, member states like France, Germany, and the UK (pre-Brexit) have substantial military forces. Collective EU action would be significant, especially if combined under NATO.
India: With the second-largest military in the world, India has considerable capabilities for mass troop deployment, particularly in its region.
NATO: Comprising 30 member countries, NATO has significant collective military resources and a framework for coordinated mass troop deployment.
I'm also curious - @EnricoCaminiti is holding the largest yes position here. the rumors are that GTA6 will release in autumn 2025, is there really a 25% chance ww3 starts before then?
balls
@nikstar Enrico clearly knows something but I'm voting NO because if WW3 actually happens, losing manifold mana is probably gonna be the least of my problems. ๐
@shoe Enrico knows that periodically putting absurd amounts of mana into YES will get more engagement from people who want to drive it back down again
@shoe the only victory I'd like is no war.
This is just my way of bringing attention to the matter as the world of geopolitics has been an evergrowing sh*tshow in the last months.
While 18-20% of war was a gross overstimation couple months ago, now it's much more realistic.
Btw if I die in war I technically lose anyway, so wait for a Will I survive WW3? question soon
@EnricoCaminiti I'd love to hear your thoughts as to why war is more imminent in the last months but I understand this is not the forum for such a discussion. Let's just hope you are wrong.