Each item will resolve soon after someone posts evidence on what sort of phone they use
Results and their value
iPhone= 0%
No phone = 50%
Both = 50%
Other OS = 60%
Android = 100%
iPhone can expand to cover all future Apple products. If the evidence is them saying they have tried both but mainly use one, that would not be a mixed resolution. Mixed (non 0/100) only happens when either we see them actually using both, personally, or they say they use both, or simultaneously evidence comes out that after today they have at least for some time, genuinely used both.
Valid evidence
Tweets, photos, videos, etc. It must be about the person's state as of today, February 27, 2024, onwards. It has to be publicly visible. If no evidence comes out, the entry will stay open. If the person passes away, if nothing new comes out I'll NA.
Judging
If someone stays on the list for say ten years, we will follow the normal procedure, even though they may have changed brands somewhere in there. We have to get the money out so whichever side finds evidence first would win. There is no end date and I expect the name list will be rolling.
I'll resolve each entry approx 24 hours after submission or slightly later to give the other side the chance to respond.
If you have a serious question about unclarity, I will adjust the description to meet my intentions which are to make something interesting. So please don't bet a ton if you see obvious unclear corner cases. First get clarity then go!
Adding entries:
Please add famous people!
Let the battle begin!
1,000
3.00@Ernie Resolves NO. Video shows "Get Outlook for iOS" in email signature.
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1892349104958951933
It's weird people go nuts over data privacy when 500 internet trolls can't even figure out what phone OS Sam Altman publicly uses
@Ernie Here's a picture of Altman from 2017, looks like an iPhone:
Edit: There's also various quotes from 2023 of him talking about having an iPhone.
there's this, https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/03/smart-phones.html
I have an email from him from February 26! which I understand is a day too early, I'd post it if that's considered evidence (and if given permission)
@esusatyo i should be free mana https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1167582338717331547
Trump has an Android device. https://www.droid-life.com/2017/01/25/president-donald-trump-android-phone-investigation-benghazi-emails/
Very old article about this shows that requirement here: https://arc.net/l/quote/ialvlkcq
any reason Chris recently resolved yes and Joshua has been pending for a few months now?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00