Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
Basic
10
Ṁ898
2026
9%
chance

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).

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