Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket
Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket
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23
Ṁ48362026
85%
Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026
62%
Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines)
58%
I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028
51%
I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025
28%
US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026
22%
Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025
13%
Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026
12%
Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025
10%
I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025
Any tests will be done:
With my model Y 2023
With fsd paid for
At my current slanted not easy driveway or equivalent
All of this is regarding tesla FSD
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I got FSD13 a few days ago and it's pretty awesome & seems way more aware of what's going on, and doesn't tailgate as much when people merge in closely in front of me. Not 100% following my preference to keep more distance, but compared to FSD12, more than 50% of the remaining driving problems areas are gone now. e.g. FSD12 was about 90% perfect, and FSD13 is above 95%
@DavidFWatson bet ya
By my comment I meant that even me, a big booster, was surprised that over 50% of the remaining small base area got fixed in this update
I can regularly go very far with no critical disengagements, and let it run through many more environments now
answered12mo
Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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