Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?

Basic

Ṁ12k

2035

97%

Jennifer Lawrence

93%

Luka Doncic

91%

PewDiePie

81%

Justin Bieber

78%

Daniel Radcliffe

75%

Emma Stone

74%

Any of the 7 BTS members

73%

Selena Gomez

69%

Any member of Blackpink

68%

Margot Robbie

68%

Adele

67%

Michael Cera

65%

Marques Brownlee

65%

Maria Sharapova

65%

Rafael Nadal

65%

Markiplier

64%

Tom Holland

63%

Any member of Girl's Generation

62%

Ben Johns (pickleball)

60%

Palmer Luckey

Judgeable when the second child is born or when the person passes away (given that we know they don't have any more planned or possible).

Also can YES is new information about the past is revealed.

Wishing everyone a big, happy and healthy family. Of course adopted children count; adopting a child and helping him or her have a good upbringing is one of the best things you can do.

Stepchildren for our purposes don't, though, since the question is about whether these people will cause a new parent+child relationship to exist for a kid who didn't have one before. Since stepchildren always will have had the person the stepparent is marrying, they wouldn't. I realize this isn't perfect, if someone married someone with adopted children it's not clear. To the best I can I'll try. If you think you've found a weird situation please let me know and I'll try to help and not trade against you.

End date: mid 2035

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Human population crisis

#Extreme fertility policies

#Fertility

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2mo

amazing market. wish i saw this sooner

answered1y

Jennifer Lawrence

opened a Ṁ1 Jennifer Lawrence YES at 95% order5mo

Start the clock https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/jennifer-lawrence-pregnant-with-second-child

5mo

@mattyb congratulations and best wishes to her and family

bought Ṁ10 Shohei Ohtani YES11mo

Bet plz

11mo

first one on the way

bought Ṁ175 YES1y

Virat Kohli resolves yes: https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/virat-kohli-anushka-sharma-welcome-their-second-child-on-february-15-1421897?platform=amp

Luka Doncic had a daughter recently so this should also resolve to YES

@diadematus congratulations to him. Is that a second child? I only see one listed on Wikipedia

@Ernie yes, he is already the adopted father of Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker.

Ah I just made it so you all can add people! Go to town. Ideally they'd be well known people in their 20s

@Ernie once boosting or buying votes works I'll spend mana on this and try to get all the options some more exposure

@Ernie Do adopted children count?

@TheBayesian yes

@Ernie Then Zack King resolves YES, his wife and he adopted 2 kids in 2019 or earlier according to a yt vid https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vn1_vUghWzA&ab_channel=ZachKing (haven't watched it, but it should have the original source confirmation)

She is 54, no children

answered1y

Rihanna

Already has 2 kids… resolves YEA

answered1y

Serena Williams

already has 2 kids…

resolves YES

https://www.standard.co.uk/culture/film/adam-driver-mark-oscar-enzo-ferrari-italian-b1128511.html

@mattyb @Ernie a few of these folks already have 2 kids…

@mattyb @Ernie

Also can YES is new information about the past is revealed.

How am I supposed to interpret this? If Rihanna has 2 kids now, does she need to reveal she secretly had another 2 kids for this to resolve YES?

@mattyb no, sorry, I just based the initial list off of gpt

@Ernie that’s pretty disappointing tbh. i wish you’d googled them first to make sure they don’t have two kids already

@mattyb ah gotcha, thanks. If you're up on pop culture would love some more answers too, feel free

@Ernie this just isn’t predictive

@mattyb once I na them it should be fine, no?

@Ernie yea N/A seems right

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

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