Will changes to South Korea's mandatory military service be announced by the end of 2024?
Will changes to South Korea's mandatory military service be announced by the end of 2024?
Plus
21
Ṁ2850Dec 31
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently, all men between the ages of 18-35 in Korea have to serve mandatory military service for 21-24 months.
Resolution Criteria
A clear plan of action has to be announced for this to count.
For example, an announcement of generic goals without an outlined plan of action won't count.
A change in pay will not count as a significant change. A minor change in medical exemption criteria will also not count as a significant change.
Some changes could include:
change in length
no longer mandatory
option opened to everyone to choose civil service instead of military service
women are forced to join
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will South Korea announce the direct provision of military equipment to Ukraine by June 30, 2025?
82% chance
Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Martial law declared in Korea in 2025?
10% chance
How will the 2024 South Korean medical crisis end?
Will South Korea bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
70% chance
Will South Korea bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
53% chance
Will North Korea announce a formal regime succession plan by the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will North Korea officially declare war on another country by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Germany pass a law introducing conscription for 18 year olds by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2030?
24% chance