Starliner-1, the next planned Starliner flight, is currently scheduled for "Early 2025". When will it actually launch?
Each option resolves Yes if Starliner-1 launches on or before that date, local time at the launch site.
I will add more answers and/or extend the close date as appropriate.
I'm betting NO on the latest dates, because they have the best odds.
The program is done. You don't recover from two consecutive failures.
How does this resolve if there's an uncrewed cargo flight to the ISS? Does that count as Starliner 1 or not?
I think the best approach, and most consistent with this market:
Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight?29%
is to just go by the name of the mission. If NASA calls it Starliner-1, it's Starliner-1.
Yes. Might wait a little bit to see what comes out of the mess, and wait for trading prices to settle in the relevant ways, but I expect that's a timeframe of days at most. If there are rumors of un-cancellation and the prices aren't stably near 0% I'd wait at least a bit.
If there is another Starliner test flight before Starliner-1, that would certainly make the 2025-03-31 date look unlikely.
Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight?29%