Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2025?
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2025?
Plus
7
Ṁ13352026
34%
United States
36%
Russia
20%
UK
20%
France
85%
China
75%
India
52%
Pakistan
69%
North Korea
30%
Israel
12%
[Other]
Which of these countries will expand the size of their nuclear stockpile in 2025 (as compared to the 2024 size)?
Based on the first OWID update in 2026 that includes 2025 data. If there is no update, close time may be extended. If Our World in Data is not publishing comparable data (successor pages to the linked one are fine), its sources (Federation of American Scientists, if available) or other credible reporting (if not) will be used instead.
2024 version: /EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-increase-the-s
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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