Will the "core" Jewish population of the USA be greater than that of Israel by 2030
Will the "core" Jewish population of the USA be greater than that of Israel by 2030
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Judged according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country
I'll go with the numbers in the table, assuming an equivalent still exists in 2030. I will ignore any section on "Debate over United States numbers" and just look at the bottom line (i.e. the table, assuming it exists).
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@JonathanRay that is halfway correct. Not only do their ultra-orthodox members have more kids than their American counterparts, Israeli Secular jews have the highest birthrate of any secular group in the western world (or westernized country).
predictedNO 1y
@JonathanRay this market can more or less be interpreted as "Will any event cause greater than >1 million israeli jews to die leave by 2030".
There is a huge fertility differential as you said, and also American Jews often outmarry and Israeli Jews generally don't.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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