Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain?
Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain?
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36
Ṁ73752026
3%
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1M
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Today, May 28, 2024, Ireland, Norway, and Spain officially recognized the State of Palestine.
Will Germany do the same within two years?
Resolution Criteria
1. Definition: Official recognition involves the German government's formal declaration or diplomatic note acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state.
2. Source: Confirmation through credible sources such as official German government statements, major news outlets, or international diplomatic records.
3. Timing: Recognition must occur before May 29, 2026, German time.
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As a German I can ensure you that this probability is 0. It stays this way when changing the resolution time to the end of the century.
@Gideon37 Too bad you can't bet it down to 1% and redeem the loans. And I mean that sincerely; if you think it's much lower, too bad there aren't incentives for you to lock more mana up.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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