Will AI be considered safe in 2030? (resolves to poll)
Basic
5
Ṁ2102030
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
In every field of relevance—early is the same as wrong.
Will doomers look like fools in 2030?
An honest poll will occur as to whether “AI” has demonstrated any semblance of existential risk
(Or it turns out that domesticated models are as dangerous as domesticated cats.
Same as the GPT-2, GPT-3, and now GPT-4 releases where nothing major happens, all the worry cases fail to occur.)
Related questions
Related questions
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
5% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
39% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
12% chance
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
72% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
80% chance
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
43% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
38% chance
Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?
85% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
32% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
41% chance