Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028? | Manifold

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

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9

Ṁ550

2028

92%

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Two questions:

How do you resolve this bet? How do you define the costs?
What is the difference with this seemingly identical bet? https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-llm-training-costs-fall-100x-b-4303c981c158

@ErwinRossen Agreed that it’s not clear enough as is. If LLMs get 100x easier to train but the $/FLOP doesn’t change, does this resolve YES or NO? If the latter, then need to take a specific model and place a $ value on training it with a fixed recipe. If the former, then need to specify a benchmark score that needs to be reached.

predictedYES

800-10k llamas

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