Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
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I am a graduate student in a STEM field. I am interested in using LLMs to automate the academic writing process, though I have found current models (GPT-4, Claude 2) to be generally poor academic writers. As LLMs improve, I will continue to explore whether they can be used to write academic manuscripts.
This market resolves YES if by 2030 I am first-author on published peer-reviewed journal article in which >40% of the text was written by an LLM. I plan to publish about 1 (or slightly fewer) journal article per year over this period.
I will update this market with any progress I make.
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Are we only counting parts of the paper that are copied verbatim? Or does it count if you use the model's ideas to write some part of the paper (perhaps while including a few terms that the model used that you happened to particularly like)?
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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