Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024?
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Plus
39
Ṁ6631
Dec 31
15%
chance

Musk tweets:

This is a significant advantage in training the world’s most powerful AI by every metric by December this year

Most powerful as ranked on the lmsys leaderbord.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1815341263102804072?s=46

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opened a Ṁ250 YES at 15% order

Clarifications: does this resolve YES if a Grok model reaches the top of lmsys, even if it is surpassed before the end of the market?

does "by december" inclusive or exclusive?

End of December. Must not be surpassed again. Musks claim was to have the most powerful AI by every metric.

By the beginning or end of december?

End of December

bought Ṁ50 NO

I place this at < 5% because I don't think X.ai has GPU resources that exceed Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepMind. Also, their approach seems to have been a bit scattershot.

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