White Lotus Season 3 [Mega independent]
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125
แน€190k
resolved Apr 18
Resolved
YES
Gay Sex
Resolved
NO
Red fighter wins the fight
Resolved
N/A
Tim Ratliff takes his scheduled flight home
Resolved
NO
A character misunderstands and inappropriately engages with a spiritual practice
Resolved
NO
A character will gain faith (go from atheist -> religious)
Resolved
NO
A character will lose their faith (become atheist)
Resolved
NO
Live elephant on screen
Resolved
NO
A hotel employee dies
Resolved
YES
The body from Episode 1 is Sritala's bodyguard (the one with hair)
Resolved
YES
Mook and Gaitok are ~a romantic couple at season end
Resolved
NO
Filmed at an Aman location instead of Four Seasons
Resolved
YES
season 3 finale has the longest runtime out of all season finales
Resolved
N/A
We will see Frank in S4 of White Lotus
Resolved
N/A
We will see any character from S3 in S4 of White Lotus
Resolved
NO
Saxson has intercourse
Resolved
NO
The owner's husband is Rick's late father's murderer
Resolved
NO
Chloe is the shooter
Resolved
NO
Zion gets into an altercation with someone, or tries to physically protect someone else
Resolved
NO
Someone covertly takes electronics out of the hotel sacks
Resolved
NO
Any employee of the WL hotel is working for/with the FBI on the case against Timothy

What will happen in the third season of the HBO series White Lotus?

(To start betting on season 4 already, use this market.)

  • Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important criteria for resolution:

    • The event must involve physical interaction (not merely a kiss) with an immediate family member

    • The interaction must be a result of sexual attraction

  • Update 2025-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Full Frontal Male Nudity Clarification

    • The outcome is determined by whether the male genital is shown in its entirety.

    • The presence or absence of outer thighs is not relevant.

  • Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Adultery Clarification:

    • Relationship Inclusion: Acts of adultery qualify if the individuals are in a relationship, not only in a legal marriage.

    • Examples: This clarification explicitly covers cases involving characters such as Jaclyn, Chloe, Chelsea, and their respective male counterparts.

  • Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Electronics Theft Clarification:

    • The act must be committed in the spirit of stealing/breaking in (i.e. it is not enough if the subject only hides the act from their family).

    • If a family member is clearly present (as with Pam) during the act, it does not satisfy the intended criteria for covert removal.

  • Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Handjob Clarification:

    • A handjob does not qualify as intercourse.

    • Only full sexual intercourse is considered toward meeting the outcome criteria.

  • Update 2025-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Named Characters Clarification:

    • Named characters are those whose names are mentioned explicitly during dialogue or who are central to the story.

    • Peripheral characters (e.g., bodyguards) do not count unless their names are referenced in the narrative.

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Last three questions, then we're wrapping this up. Unless people object, I'll resolve in the following way in ~48 hours:

  • Gay sex

    • I plan to resolve this one to YES, despite it being at 1%.

    • A handjob is clearly a sexual rather than romantic activity. It was clearly gay. It was clearly in a sexual context. Claude 3.7 (explicitly prompted "what about a handjob?") and ChaGPT 4.5 (unprompted) seem to find it fairly unambiguous.

  • Red fighter wins the fight

    • If this was resolved on screen, I missed/forgot about it. Will resolve NO per current percentage, unless anyone objects.

    • Might be good if someone wanted to confirm if it's due to Red didn't explicitly win, or because Red lost.

  • Tim Ratliff takes his scheduled flight home

    • I plan to resolve this to N/A ...

    • ... or if not I'm leaning NO. There's no way to know at what point he would get taken by authorities (even though I would suspect once touching US soil), but it could very well be in Bangkok/at airport. We definitely haven't seen on screen that this happens though. That this is at 99% very much surprises me, so people can feel free to state their case.

@HenriThunberg I think N/A on Tim taking his flight home is best, they never explicitly said/showed what Tim does after the boat ride

@Jessef0226 Agree that N/A is best. When I wrote this, I didn't intend to require that the flight be depicted on screen, so I understand how others would have interpreted this as a likely YES

@MitiSaksena All alive

@HenriThunberg my case for yes: there's 4 bodies in the water, the bodyguards, Rick and Chelsea.

Rick is faceup and the body in ep1 is facedown

Chelsea has a different colour dress, and is also close to Rick so we would see them both if it was her

The floating body has hair so it can't be the bald bodyguard

By a process of elimination it has to be the hairy bodyguard

@Odoacre This is about the best picture you can get, agreed? Ugh, it's very hard to make out most anything. But I do buy your reasoning, and colors/hair wise it seems like the best match too. Will resolve this to YES in a day or two unless someone disagrees.

@HenriThunberg Lochlan said he saw god after drinking the laced shake

@Odoacre Yup, +1

@Odoacre that wasn't a psychedelic drug though

@shankypanky I think I'm with Stefanie on this one. Seems more like a plain near-death experience rather than something psychedelic. Are psychedelic effects of the fruit mentioned? That could make me lean more in favor. I also don't think there's any other indication of Lochy being intoxicated.

@HenriThunberg it was always just talked about as a fruit with seeds that could kill you, and that some people used for ending their own life. he did see monklike figures in the swimming near death fantasy, but that was just an elucidation of him nearly crossing over so to speak. one of those "I saw the light" sort of things.

@shankypanky of all people to take the paw paw fruit 100% have been observed to have hallucinations. It's clearly has psychedelic effects

@Odoacre did someone say that's the case? (it wasn't pawpaw but I understand what you're saying otherwise. I just don't recall that being a thing in the show at all?)

@shankypanky no they don't talk about it, and the fruit is made up. But that what we observed

pawpaw is also a real fruit. the point is, the option says "psychedelic drug" and even if he hallucinated as a side effect from something not posed as a psychedelic drug (which I maintain he didn't, it was a near death experience illustrated with the pool scene), if it wasn't posed as a psychedelic it shouldn't count.

@shankypanky oh! I sincerely thought it was a made up fruit, sorry!

Since the Wikipedia page does not mention any psychotropic effects I think I have to concede this point

@Odoacre I think the made up part might be that a resort would have a suicide tree just planted around a guest villa, but I guess it's not like the flesh will kill you and blending up the seeds doesn't seem like something most people would just randomly do. lots of seeds have cyanide in them obv but not at a lethal dose afaik

@Predictor fine by you to resolve this to NO?

I resolved everything I think was obvious, and closed the question (so that people don't trade based on absence of resolution, or on arguments made).

Any case you want to make should be made in the next few days.

I for one am kind of skeptical about

  1. Are Gaitok and Mook really something like a couple? I feel like they're very volatile between absolute friend zone and going on dates. But we haven't even seen a kiss yet? So despite her being very impressed with his new role, I think there's actually not concrete evidence of them being romantic. Last they talked (on screen) about going on a second date, she said "we'll see", hardly a couple.

  2. We don't count handy as gay sex then? If a guy goes to a glory hole and gets a hand job from a man, wouldn't that count as gay sex?

  3. Are we positive the body guards are not technically hotel employees? They stayed with Sritala when husband was gone, and the hotel seems to be her main gig.

  4. I guess I'll let Ratliff flying home resolve YES, but it certainly doesn't happen on screen and it's all very ambiguous what happens from there. Just as much as something like "Ratliff gets imprisoned" doesn't happen but is the default trajectory we're on, we could only assume but not know that he gets on that flight. Arguments for/against from others, please?

  5. I'd resolve the three religion questions as NO, unless anyone objects. Didn't Zion get something wrong in the first episode by the shrine? Could be worth checking out.

I'll also aim at N/Aing the Season 4 questions, asking people to take it to the below market so we can close this one.

/HenriThunberg/white-lotus-season-4-mega-independe

Further thoughts or objections?

@HenriThunberg re 5: I agree. It was just that brief scene in the first episode, but in my opinion not enough to count.

  1. I'm OK to resolve them as a happy couple, based on the below interview. But I can't say I like it, for my boi Gaitok.



heads up traders: I have a market for speculating on the location of the S4 White Lotus Resort:

/shankypanky/in-what-country-will-white-lotus-se

@HenriThunberg have you watched yet? start closing?

@shankypanky SPOILER ALERT if you havenโ€™t watched yetโ€ฆ..Iโ€™m curious to hear what your opinion is on this question? I would argue YES because Tim brought the poison seeds into the house and used the blender to make drinks in an attempt to murder his family while committing suicide in the process. However; he had a change of heart and disposed of the drinks but forgot about the blender which Lochlan uses the leftovers in the morning to make a protein drink leading him to collapse by the pool and almost dying.

bought แน€50 YES

@ReeMARKable lol spoiler alerts don't work when push notifications contain the whole message ๐Ÿ˜‚ (there's a "spoiler" option for text btw - not sure if they fixed the issue of the details showing on push notifs or not)

I would have bet it higher but I don't know how Henri will resolve, but doing a little search, I feel confident that poisoning a family member leading to vomiting, losing consciousness for some time, and even having "near death" hallucinations counts as an injury. I don't like to resolve to LLM consensus but I asked for an unbiased opinion and detailed the circumstances, and got a similar answer to my general belief here.

@shankypanky Haha oops. Thanks, I will remember that in the future.

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