Trump's approval rating on the day he left office was 38.0%. This market will resolve YES to all options on or after the date that his approval rating dips below this number. If it does not go below this number before he leaves office (at any time, for any reason), all other options will resolve NO.
This will resolve based on the FiveThirtyEight tracker. If it stops functioning or is otherwise deemed unreliable/invalid by the market creator, another website's approval rating tracker will be substituted.
1,000
3.00For full transparency, I'm currently leaning towards using RealClearPolling's average here. It's unfortunately much less robust than FiveThirtyEight's average was and takes into account significantly fewer polls, but for now it seems to be the best resource available. If this changes, I may migrate to a new tracker again at some later point, however that will be clearly communicated at the time and I won't do so close to any resolution deadline.
Resolved first two. Tracker is now live here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/