SBU has reported that Russia is planning to use the Wagner group now partially stationed in Belarus to perform a false-flag attack on two rafineries, trying to drag Belarus into the war.
The question resolves YES if Belarus enters openly the Russo-Ukrainian war by the 1/1/2025. It will resolve NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00I did not specify it and it is good that you ask.
I would judge "openly join" in the following way: Either the Belorus government needs to acknowledge joining military operations (not necessarily call it a war) at significant scale (say thousand soldiers or more), or the scale of their involvement is such, that it is beyond reasonable doubt they are waging a war.
For example, if they open new front, significantly taking territory of Ukraine or start using heavy military tech, I would resolve this as Yes, even if they did not admit it. I would count that as Yes even if Russia is massively attacking from territory of Belarus in similar way.
If they join in more subtle way, e.g. supporting or reinforcing Russians, and if they do not admit joining fights, I would count that as no even if there are news in Western media they joined fights. (Because it is not open way of joining, and because there is still significant doubt).
Does that help resolving the ambiguity?