Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
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claim in tweet says 2029, I gave 1 extra year to make it more interesting: https://nitter.cz/YuqiiQian/status/1629828184081567745#m
Feb 28, 9:45pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by 2030? → Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030?
Feb 28, 10:35pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030? → Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
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How will this resolve if there's a collaboration between CNSA and SpaceX, for example? What makes a mission "CNSA / China"?
@Isaac228c If there's any particular reason you think this might happen I'd be very interested to hear!
opened a Ṁ2,000 NO at 66% order1y
@JoshuaWilkes If you're willing to buy at 62, once you account for whatever premium you want I assume your true probability is significantly higher. I'll meet you right smack in the middle at 66.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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