Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
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9
Ṁ6982029
8%
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The last third-party candidate to win one or more states was George Wallace of the American Independent Party in 1968
That's about 14 presidential elections. Very rough napkin math then suggests 2/14 = 14% as a base rate.
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