Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

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Ṁ11k

2030

26%

chance

ALL

The GPT may not use external plugins. It may write and execute its own code. Both engines must have the same amount of time per move.

The competition must use a version of Stockfish prior to 2024, potentially being updated to better use future hardware.

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There's like no chance right? I assume the only way is if a GPT is running the position through a chess engine itself.

3mo

LLM is massively RLed MoE where one expert is a stockfish-like engine

3mo

but yeah prolly not gonna happen

10mo

You know 2023 Stockfish has a neutral net right?

predictedYES 1y

@NivlacM Ah, hmm. Ok, I'll use 2023 Stockfish then, allowing it to be updated to better utilize any future hardware advances.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 11% to 13% 1y

2023 Stockfish or 2030 Stockfish?

predictedNO 1y

@NivlacM I hope the answer is 2023 otherwise we're also betting on stockfish not improving dramatically by any means including LLMs

predictedYES 1y

@NivlacM 2030 Stockfish.

predictedNO 1y

@IsaacKing hmm, that means YES = ("future LLMs useful relative to 2023 known best tech for chess" AND Stockfish hasn't incorporated them)

I'd like to just bet on "future LLMs useful relative to 2023 known best tech for chess"

predictedYES 1y

@Ernie See the second line of the description.

That suggestion would be unfair to Stockfish if a new computing architecture is developed.

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