Will the US have an atheist president by 2033?
Will the US have an atheist president by 2033?
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They can be president for any length of time.
This market closes right after inaguration day 2033.
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Even if someone was privately an atheist, i find it unlikely that they'd be open about it if running for the office. Everyone seems to end their speeches with "god bless america"
predictedNO 2y
@firstuserhere For the purposes of this market, I need to be confident that they're actually an atheist. They don't need to be super public about it, but it can't just be a "IDK, I respect all religious beliefs" hedge.
predictedNO 2y
Oof, 53% of people in 2014 would be less likely to vote for an atheist president, and only 5% more likely.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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