According to the USBR 5-year probabilistic model, the probability of <900 ft before August 2029 is 0%. I don't think that model accounts for the USBR pushing back as the reservoir approaches minimum power pool at 950 ft.

@IsaacMathes you'll want to extend the market's close date to 2030! Currently it closes at the end of 2023.

@chrisjbillington Thanks for pointing that out! Made the change.

If the water level rises again, how does this resolve? Are we betting on a drought between now and then or a permanent transformation?

@josharian The question resolves YES if, at any point in time between now and the end of 2030, Lake Mead's water level drops below 895 feet.