
Will Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
Basic
10
Ṁ2022028
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Gary Marcus uploads himself this counts.
If Gary fails to publicly predict AGI before AGI is created by this question's standards, and Gary is subsequently paperclipped or uploaded (etc.) then this resolves Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2047?
83% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
56% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will we get AGI before 2042?
82% chance
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
51% chance
Will we get AGI before 2044?
83% chance
Will we get AGI before 2040?
78% chance
Will we get AGI before 2037?
76% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
77% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
74% chance