Sam Altman right about AGI by end of 2025?

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https://x.com/i/trending/1855048532660830307

Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves "Yes" if Sam Altman’s prediction that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will be achieved by 2025 is confirmed, with AGI development publicly acknowledged by reputable sources or Altman himself by the end of 2025. Otherwise, the market resolves "No."

Resolution Date & Time:
Expected resolution on December 31, 2025, by 23:59 PT.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Just to be clear: the description implies that if Altman states AGI has been achieved, this resolves YES even if he is demonstrably weong/lying?

@AIBear correct!

sold Ṁ24 NO

Could you clarify the title? "By 2025" reads like "by the 1st of January 2025" to me. "by the end of 2025" would be a lot more clear.

@SergeyDavidoff Done, thanks for the suggestion.

"or Altman himself" makes me much less confident. AGI is an inherently vague term. Depending how you define it, you could claim it was achieved a couple years ago or we have hundreds of years before we get there.

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