When will the first self-replicating spaceship take off?
15
Ṁ2284
2051

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  • Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Clarification on the definition of "self-replicating spaceship":

    • If Altman clarifies his stance, the market will resolve to his interpretation (unless obviously memeing).

    • Otherwise, the definition will be based on classical von Neumann resource reconfiguring.

    • Regarding resolution if no such event occurs (i.e., no qualifying spaceship takes off meeting criteria for earlier options/buckets): The last bucket will resolve YES.

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Re: what kind of replicating probe - If Altman clarifies his stance, market will resolve to his interpretation (unless obv memeing). Else classical von Neumann resource reconfiguring

Re: if none of them - last bucket resolves yes

sorry for spam I fat fingered the reply button 😅

None of them?

@Nddc generally these numerical markets resolve to the the final bucket in that case, but I agree clarification would be good @JoeandSeth

bought Ṁ100 ???

unlimited self-replication? Or does it also count if the spaceship carries all the resources for a second version without having to collect new resources?

opened a Ṁ500 ??? at 7% order

@Jan53274 presumably it's about von Neumann probes... have to collect the resources. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft

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