Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)
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19%
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Resolution Criteria: If by 2031, there is an AI that can build and operate a factory that produces novel and human-competitive technology, e.g. akin to a Tesla or SpaceX factory, the bet will resolve in Daniel’s favour.
The AI is free to use human labour. As long as the AI(s) is clearly the prime agent behind the construction of the factory, the bet resolves in Daniel’s favour. This will be judged by @scottalexander, or anyone else Daniel elects to act as judge at the tim
e.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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