Resolution Criteria: If by 2029, there is an AI that can build and operate a factory that produces novel and human-competitive technology, e.g. akin to a Tesla or SpaceX factory, the bet will resolve in Daniel’s favour.
The AI is free to use human labour. As long as the AI(s) is clearly the prime agent behind the construction of the factory, the bet resolves in Daniel’s favour. This will be judged by @scottalexander, or anyone else Daniel elects to act as judge at the tim
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3.00@DavidBolin I think various things like regulation, AI not being given "CEO-like" decision making or resource control, and potential lingering gap between AI's prowess at bits vs atoms could all make this not resolve yes even while the movie prompt does.
But I agree that there's some absolute difficulty sense in which creating an entire movie from a prompt (not something humans can do) is harder than simply running a factory (something humans of course do all the time).