Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse by 2030?
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A recent paper in Nature Communications https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w predicts that the AMOC will collapse between 2025-2095 with a 95% confidence interval. Given recent drastic shifts in climate indicators, what is the likelihood that AMOC will collapse in the first 5 years of the paper's predicted range, by 2030?
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@traders unresolved and reopened. Apologies for the long delay on that.
Should this be "before 2030" or "before or during 2030"? I haven't read the paper.
@fwbt That was my interpretation as well, hopefully if that's wrong someone will explain why with reference to the paper text. I'm mostly just noting as mod that it's a common point of confusion whether the word "by" means "before" or "before or including".
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