Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
[Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a hung chamber where the Associated Press cannot determine party control, the market will wait to resolve until control is established and one of the answer options becomes true.
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3.00@JussiVilleHeiskanen Not sure what you mean with the second question.
Suggestions for how I should resolve if there are hung chamber(s)? I can't add additional answer options now, so my guess would be to just wait with resolving the market until one of the answers becomes true, and then pick that one.
@JonasVollmer I think there have been markets in multiparty countries elections where it goes for whoever has the prime minister. But that wouldn't be precisely the case as there aren't prime ministers as such. Wonder if there is precedent in US history how that works out. Maybe you could specify it would be the largest faction in congress and senate respectively. Or if there is a pact of some sort then the largest faction in the pact. Don't have a clue if no pact. In many parliamentary system the body would dissolve and there would be a new election. But I understand that isn't the case formally in the US.
@JonasVollmer The second question is what if for instance Elon makes good on his threat and says he won't caucus with either the Democrats or the republicans, but intends to win himself.
@AshDorsey I didn't know much about the senate map but midterms frequently are "wave" elections against the incumbent party (i.e. 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018). "Wave" elections have been known to cause a party to outperform expectations in the Senate and win somewhere they usually wouldn't win (2006 and 2020 are examples that come to mind). I think the conventional wisdom on the Senate tends to overrate structural factors (like how many of the party's seats are up for election, red and blue states) and underrate the overall national political climate, at least to a degree.
@WilliamDewey TX, IA, AK, GA, MN would require a 11 point swing from the 2024 Donald Trump election results, but that is seeming more and more possible every day.
My biggest high-level disagreement with the market (or at least with the market before I traded) is that I think that there's a 75% chance that the House will be controlled by the opposite party of the president. The House is very likely to be close in 2024 and there's been a swing in the House against the incumbent party in nearly all recent midterm elections.