Conditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator?
Conditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator?
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@ForrestTaylor Somebody who can do by executive order anything that was traditionally done by the legislative or judicial branches of government.
That his Bolsanora-esque "help-help-I'm-being-couped" coup attempt was not successful is strong evidence that American institutions - and even right-wing American politicians, like Mike Pence - will block this outcome.
And a second time around - if it came to that - people would be more prepared.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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