I've made a market about wether this market will resolve correctly if anyone is interested: https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-jonathan-rays-market-on-the-ca

Will Jonathan Ray's market on the causes of the increase of life expectancy resolve as intended?

45% chance. This market resolves yes if the following market fits all the following criteria: resolves within a reasonable time after 2050 (and not before!) doesn't NA the total probabilities add up to 100% This market resolves no if any of the criteria above aren't fulfilled or clearly won't be able to be fulfilled. (This includes if Manifold stops existing) https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/how-will-scientific-consensus-in-20 [link preview]

What’s the resolution mechanism to decide scientific consensus? Would love to trade if this was operationalised :)

I’ll search around on google scholar and decide

how would you have graded the options if the resolution was today, instead?

If you're doing "increased life expectancy", and not "life expectancy in adulthood", it should be almost entirely due to decreased childhood mortality. Something like 50% of all humans before 1800 died before age of 5, that drastically reduces life expectancy.

A lot of that was being too poor to feed the children, and either abandoning them or watching them starve.

industrial revolution was the tipping point on child mortality, because it made people rich enough to not starve their kids

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57906379-extra-life claims fertilizers, sanitation, and vaccines saved billions of lives each:

https://www.workersliberty.org/story/2022-01-25/20000-days-history-life-expectancy

Would fertilizers and pasteurization fall under diet?

Extra Life: A Short History of Living Longer

Read 166 reviews from the world’s largest community for readers. “Offers a useful reminder of the role of modern science in fundamentally transforming all …

Hey manifold we neeeeed a loans system

also we need positions on a linked market to be linked so that your capital requirement is your max loss on the market instead of the sum of the positions, as I told @Gen at manifest

premium + resolves in 2050 is not a good choice imo

So much liquidity subsidy in a premium market that it's hard to correct the 100% overbet or move the needle?

The main issue is the time value of money. With no interest and no loan system it’s not worth it to correct a 30% mispricing that doesn’t resolve for 26 years

Figured there'd still be movement from folks looking to profit off some short-term movement towards interest-rate levels. <shrug> oh well

Not starving to death or being malnourished counts as improved diet, so improved diet should probably be the highest not the lowest, considering Malthusian conditions that prevailed before ind rev

These currently sum to 200%, who wants to correct?

@SG I accidentally made this unlinked, is there any way to switch it to linked?

a preview feature would have helped

I've done the same thing, agree preview would help.