I will resolve this market NO at the end of July unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES (Hard Mode)
82
Ṁ66k
Aug 1
6%
chance

This market is like Ben's market except that I am a heartless bastard and you won't sway me so easily:

Obviously I precommit not to negotiate with terrorists, no threats you make will impact my decision in either direction. I can also ban you if you violate the community guidelines, so let's keep this friendly.

I could imagine myself being bribed, but my price is high. I was following Ben's market's comments and I think nothing that was tried there will work here, so you'll have to be original. I am subsidizing this market and betting it down as additional precommitment.

Good luck.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Do it or ur gay. Simpul az.

@NivlacM Wow you're way better at this than I am

@Joshua the whole deadline thing seemed like an unnecessary complication

this is a litmus test for whether humanity is able to be happily surprised by the future

@KJW_01294 How so?

For what it's worth, I'd be saddened and disappointed by a YES resolution, and not just because I'm holding NO. It's important that people keep their word.

@NcyRocks if he’s persuaded to resolve YES, he’s still keeping his word to “resolve NO unless he’s persuaded to resolve yes”

@bens I guess so, but I'd still like to think that nothing the Manifold community could do would work.

@NcyRocks why do you think that? Is there really nothing positive I could do to make your hypothetical equivalent market resolve yes?

@NcyRocks Technically this is a threat to be sad and therefore I must state it will not influence my decision in either direction but I agree it is important to keep your word.

@Joshua I think It’s only a threat if it’s something that I wouldn’t have done normally, done with the intent to sway your decision. That I’ll be disappointed is just a fact. But you still shouldn’t consider it separately, it should just be baked into your existing commitments.

And it seems that more commenters would be disappointed with a NO anyway.

@Odoacre There’s probably something, but if you can do something positive, why would you only do it to make me change a market’s resolution? If it’s for me, there’s probably something else I’d rather trade for it, and if it’s altruistic, why not just do it?

@NcyRocks hm discarding Joshua's reasonable interpretation of a threat and doubling down on it as a NO holder...

this is a compelling strategy to steer a YES, i'm on board

bought Ṁ5 YES at 6%

If anyone wants to attempt bribing Joshua here I publicly commit to giving 5k mana to Joshua conditional on this market resolving YES and Joshua accepts someone's mana bribe offer

@SavioMak I feel like he will not be motivated by mana

@SavioMak For 5000 mana I will sell you a publically random 1 in 10 billion chance the market resolves yes, with no promise that this is a set rate or that I'd do it again.

@Joshua that implies the worth of a YES resolution is 50 trillion mana.

behold: medium mode

@crowlsyong If this resolves NO, does Joshua get a boost in his RISK credit score for keeping his word?

bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

Hey Ian, what would it take to make you swap the YES and NO resolution buttons on specifically August 1st?

This is a long shot, but are you gay and do you live in Australia

bought Ṁ1 NO at 7%

It's a funnier and more interesting outcome to resolve this to yes.

bought Ṁ100 YES from 7% to 8%
2 traders bought Ṁ101 NO

@bgaf I think it's a lot funnier for dozens of people to keep threatening someone who's precommitted not to respond to threats and who keeps just saying "no"

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