What will the Dem Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania?
Basic
12
Ṁ1944Nov 17
0.3%
0.0 - 39.9%
0.3%
40.0 - 44.9%
0.4%
45.0 - 45.9%
0.5%
46.0 - 46.9%
0.6%
47.0 - 47.9%
91%
48.0 - 48.9%
3%
49.0 - 49.9%
1.5%
50.0 - 50.9%
0.7%
51.0 - 51.9%
0.4%
52.0 - 52.9%
0.3%
53.0 - 53.9%
0.3%
54.0 - 54.9%
0.3%
55.0 - 59.9%
0.3%
60.0 - 100.0%
Resolves based on the finalized vote count in the 2024 presidential election in the state of Pennsylvania. In 2020 this was 50.01% for Biden, in 2016 it was 47.46% for Clinton, in 2012 it was 51.97% for Obama, and in 2008 it was 54.47% for Obama.
Any Democratic party nominee will be used instead of Biden if he is not the nominee.
You can keep an eye on the current raw polling average here. As of market creation, it's very close.
You can find more questions like this in the 2024 Vote Share Dashboard.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Perhaps there's a <1% chance it's under 48% and a <5% chance it's over 49%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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