Which European countries will open a representative office in Taipei before 2032?
Basic
5
Ṁ279
2032
65%
Estonia
60%
Latvia
50%
Iceland
50%
Ireland
50%
Norway
50%
Portugal
50%
Ukraine
50%
Moldova
50%
Romania
50%
Bulgaria
50%
North Macedonia
50%
Greece
50%
Albania
50%
Kosovo
50%
Montenegro
50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
50%
Croatia
50%
Slovenia
50%
Greece
50%
Cyprus

Resolves YES to those countries which officially* open a representative office in Taipei before 2032. Countries which already have offices prior to 2024 do not count. If any country which does not have an office opens an embassy that would count.

The office should be functioning as an unofficial embassy, offering at least some consular services. In situations of genuine ambiguity, I will make a ruling. I may bet in this market, and so rulings can be challenged and passed to a mutually agreed third party for adjudication.

(note that Greece is listed on the Wikipedia page but I see no proof that this is correct)

I have added a number of 'countries' whose sovereignty is heavily disputed. I trust it's obvious why - it does not in any way represent my own views.

I also added the Sovereign Order of Malta because, you know, that's fun.

*you may recall the awkward gap between the arrival of the Lithuanian representative and the opening of the office some months later. In cases such as this it is only when the office is reported as being open that is will resolve YES.

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FYI Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia are not countries – only Putin's Russia (a state literally engaged in genocide rn) and a tiny handful of allies recognizes them

@Lorelai please read the description

@JoshuaWilkes maybe change the title

@Lorelai I have added quotation marks in the description to make it clearer that I am not taking a position here.

I'm not going to change the title - if eg Tiraspol opened an office in Taipei it would effectively represent the Taiwanese govt taking the position that Transnistria is a country, which matters far more to this market than my personal view

@JoshuaWilkes should be easy enough to add quotation marks in title too then

@Lorelai

Seems like we are at the end of productive discussion on this - feel free to sell your positions if you're not happy with the market

@JoshuaWilkes it's a small change to make, seems disingenuous to suggest this is a matter of personal views as opposed to a political decision at your end

I am going to 'fill out' the list of answers in chunks over time, to try to get multiple people to take the alpha and thus increase the market's exposure

@JoshuaWilkes or, I'll add them all before the cost goes up

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