Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
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'Approved' here means that a bill was passed in the UK Parliament, similar to the High Speed Rail (London - West Midlands) Act 2017
'High-speed' is here arbitrarily defined as trains travelling over 250km/h (to capture the difference between current fast rail in the UK and planned/operational high-speed rail, ie HS1 and HS2 phase 1. Notice that by this definition domestic services on HS1 are not high-speed)
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12 years to approve a plan, even one that takes another will e.g. 25 years to complete, is very possible.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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