Will Lunar Gateway be cancelled before 2026?
Basic
3
Ṁ55
2025
53%
chance

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The Gateway will be considered to exist if it is in any lunar orbit, not just NRHO (Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit).

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Gateway modules must be in lunar orbit to prevent a YES resolution - modules in Earth orbit or sent to Mars would not prevent this from resolving YES.

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What if Gateway still exists but not in NRHO?

@Mqrius any lunar orbit would be okay

@JoshuaWilkes I guess the other scenarios we need to worry about are Gateway modules in earth orbit and Gateway modules being sent to Mars and I think it's clear that neither of those would would stop this resolving YES

@JoshuaWilkes for my market I've rated those as Yes as well. If Gateway isn't in some lunar orbit then imo it's substantially different enough.

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