Will Kemi Badenoch become Prime Minister of the UK?
Will Kemi Badenoch become Prime Minister of the UK?
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I will change the title once the next leader after Sunak is chosen. (It was Kemi Badenoch)
If they are chosen whilst the Conservative Party is in power it immediately resolves to YES.
If the Conservatives are not in power, it will resolve to YES if said leader becomes Prime Minister, and resolve to NO if they cease to be leader without doing so (Question ignores the possibility of becoming leader again)
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Interesting question! On the one hand, the Conservatives are almost always in power and most of their leaders get to be PM. On the other hand, it does look like they might be heading for a period of stumbling in the wilderness after the next election so they might go through a couple of leaders.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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