Will Nintendo win their patent infringement lawsuit against Palworld / Pocketpair?
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2026
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Nintendo Co., Ltd., together with The Pokémon Company, has filed a patent infringement lawsuit in the Tokyo District Court against Pocketpair, Inc. on September 18th, 2024.

This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo is considered to have won the case. Any remedy or compensation awarded to Nintendo by the court will be considered a win. A settlement perceived to be in favour of Nintendo will be considered a win if it includes a factor such as: statement of admission by Pocketpair, crediting Nintendo/The Pokémon Company, updates to the game to lessen Pokémon resemblance, or removing the game from sale. If terms are not disclosed, media consensus of whether any of these factors occurred will determine.

It is unknown when the suit will be resolved and the end date could be extended if it appears the case has not yet been exhausted.

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I made a related market, if there's anything that needs changing let me know

How does settlement resolve?

Undisclosed commercial settlement could be either N/A or NO.

A settlement that involves some statement of admission by Pocketpair or an action like crediting TPC, changing the game, or taking it down could be YES.

How does partial success in the case go?

@OP Hm, I think a settlement should resolve to YES assuming the public is aware in any way and is covered by media sources? A settlement is essentially a win for Nintendo, there would be no need to settle if Pocketpair expects to win.

@Jubs Settlement can be an effective loss too.

A settlement could be, for example, a complete capitulation by TPC, with an agreement to pay Pocketpair’s costs to date.

It could also be settlement on a walk-away basis, with both parties bearing their own costs.

It could also be a commercial settlement. Let’s say both sides assess TPC as having a 10% chance of winning. PP might choose to pay 10% to settle the matter.

@OP Yeah, I think you're right. I like the definition you used earlier, adding this to the description:

A settlement perceived to be in favour of Nintendo will be considered a win if it includes a factor such as: statement of admission by Pocketpair, crediting Nintendo/The Pokémon Company, updates to the game to lessen Pokémon resemblance, or removing the game from sale.

@Jubs How will undisclosed settlement be handled? NO, or NA?

@OP My thinking Is that even if terms aren't disclosed, it should resolve to YES if we know there was some settlement with any of the factors noticed and noted by prominent media sources. (crediting, game updates lessening Pokémon resemblance, removal from sale) If not, then NO. The game has been out for 9 months now without any changes out of fear of Nintendo, so I think it is safe to assume this suit would be the reason for any changes now.

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