What percent of the vote will Democrats get in their 2024 Senate races?
What percent of the vote will Democrats get in their 2024 Senate races?
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16
Ṁ731Nov 7
64%
New Jersey
63%
Minnesota
56%
Virginia
54%
Pennsylvania
54%
New Mexico
54%
Michigan
52%
Nevada
50%
Wisconsin
46%
Florida
46%
Ohio
46%
Arizona
44%
Texas
44%
Montana
42%
Maine
36%
West Virginia
34%
Utah
Each answer will resolve to the percentage of the vote that the Democratic candidate receives in that particular Senate race.
For example, if the Democrat gets 52% of the vote, then their option will resolve to 52%, meaning that if you had 100 shares invested in YES, you would earn 52 manna. I will always round the percentages as precisely as Manifold allows me to.
If no candidate runs on the Democratic ticket for a state, the answer would resolve to 0%. If multiple candidates are on the Democratic ticket, the answer would resolve to the highest percent-getter of the Democrats. If the election is held through ranked-choice voting, the answer would resolve to the highest percentage a Democrat gets in a round.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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