Resolution Criteria
YES Resolution: This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2050, it is confirmed that autonomous robots have fully taken over the roles previously held by human soldiers in direct combat situations on the frontline.
NO Resolution: If human soldiers are still actively serving in frontline combat roles by the end of 2050, the market resolves to NO.
Scope of Replacement: Full replacement means human soldiers are no longer deployed in roles that involve direct engagement with enemy forces, including but not limited to ground combat, reconnaissance in hostile territories, and direct assault operations.
Confirmation Source: The resolution will be based on official statements from major world military organizations, defence ministries, or reputable global defence news sources.
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3.00Is this about all militaries the world over? Like if there's any ongoing conflict that involves frontline human soldiers anywhere in the world, this resolves NO? Also, how does this resolve if for some reason there are no active military conflicts in 2050?
@sesquipedalianThaumaturge If there is no war or military conflict in 2050, the question will resolve to NO, as the premise of the question assumes the existence of such roles for replacement.
@abledbody Great question! Since the question is about "completely" replacing humans, the idea here is about the shift happening across the entire spectrum of a conflict, not just being limited to one party or side.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00