Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES for any answer that correctly predicts when Canada separates itself from the monarchy. Separation means Canada formally removes the British monarch as its head of state through constitutional amendment. Multiple answers can resolve to YES if events align with multiple timeframes.

Background

Canada is a constitutional monarchy with King Charles III as the current head of state, represented by the Governor General. Removing the monarchy would require amending the Constitution Act of 1982, which needs unanimous consent from the Senate, House of Commons, and all ten provincial legislatures.

Public opinion on the monarchy varies across Canada, with Quebec showing stronger anti-monarchist sentiment. A 2022 Angus Reid poll found 51% of Canadians oppose continuing as a monarchy, while 26% support it, with 24% undecided.

Considerations

Constitutional changes in Canada are notoriously difficult to achieve. Previous attempts at major constitutional reform (like the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords) failed to gain the required consensus. The "virtually impossible" nature of the unanimous consent requirement means that even with public support, abolishing the monarchy faces significant procedural hurdles.

The Quebec independence question adds another layer of complexity, as a potential Quebec secession could trigger broader constitutional discussions but doesn't automatically change Canada's relationship with the monarchy.

• Update 2025-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Event Timing Clarification:

  • The predicted event does not need to occur immediately after King Charles III dies or abdicates.

  • Any date at which Canada formally removes the British monarch as its head of state, up until the market closing date, qualifies.