>30% chance there will be someone born before year ____ who lives for at least 300 years (vote smallest such number)
>30% chance there will be someone born before year ____ who lives for at least 300 years (vote smallest such number)
51
Never closes
1960
2000
2040
Some number greater than 2040
No such number
Only biological humans count for the purposes of this poll. If someone is preserved through cryonics, only the time spent alive counts toward 300 years.
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Oldest person to ever live was Jeanne Louise Calment, who lived to be 122. Using that as an upper bound for current longevity, someone born in 1960 with current medical technology could live until the year 2082.
Metaculus estimates a 75% chance of AGI by 2048.
It's not clear AGI is sufficient to solve aging within the 34 years, but I'd certainly put >40% chance it does. Therefore I also put >30% chance someone born in 1960 could live to 300.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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