On 4th of November Yitang Zhang uplodaed a preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros to arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.02515

The market resolves based on the correctness of the preprint. In the case the preprint is (essentially) correct as stated, the market resolves to 100%. However, certain gray area cases are possible, in which case the market may resolve to values strictly between 0 and 1. Below is a list of example scenarios and corresponding resolutions to indicate how the ultimate resolution will be made.

• Preprint is correct as stated: 100%. (Typos, small "local" errors, etc. may be found and fixed.)

• Actually only a bound with 2022 replaced with some large effective constant follows from the proof: 99%.

• Actually only a bound with 2022 replaced with some large ineffective constant follows from the proof: 80%.

• Actually only a lower bound of C_{epsilon}/q^{epsilon} for any epsilon > 0 is proven for L(1, chi), with the constant C_{epsilon} > 0 effective: 30%. (This would mean making the famous Siegel theorem effective.)

• The preprint introduces a new tool that's perhaps useful for problems on Dirichlet L-functions or improves on previous tools, but which does not directly lead to any results as above without substantial new work: 10%.

• There is a central flaw that cannot be easily fixed, and the preprint does not give a result of independent interest (as above): 0%.

It may be that the final situation does not fit neatly into any of the categories above. In this case the quality of the work is compared to the above guidelines to give the final resolution.

The market resolves at least in the following cases:

• The preprint is published in a journal (of reasonable quality).

• The preprint is redacted from arXiv due to a critical error, or the author otherwise states that an error has been found.

It may be that the author and the broader mathematical community disagree on the correctness of the proof. In case an agreement is not found (cf. the famous ABC-conjecture case), the market will resolve to what the broader community thinks. (In case the broader community has no consensus, the resolution will wait until a consensus arises.)

It may be that the author notices an error in the preprint, but is able to fix it with considerable amount of effort. If this results in a new preprint, this market will resolve based on the basis of the preprint linked above. If this simply results in an update of the preprint linked above, the same rules as above apply.

The resolution may ultimately depend on subjective assessments. For this reason I will not be betting on the market.

(This market is similar to https://manifold.markets/jack/is-yitang-zhangs-preprint-on-landau, but with the resolution criteria written out more explicitly.)