Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025?
Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025?
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Resolves according to my subjective judgment. I am open to argument.
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Would any of these count as "dissolving":
- The non-profit dissolves and OpenAI becomes a normal for-profit
- OpenAI changes it's name but remains basically the same
- The US government takes control of OpenAI, but the company is still basically doing similar things
- OpenAI merges with a much bigger company
- OpenAI merges with a much smaller company
- OpenAI leadership and most employees leave but the company still exists (a la Inflection)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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