In 2025, what percentage of EAs are non-male?

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Ṁ296

Dec 31

32%

chance

ALL

Resolves to the percentage reported by the most current publicly available community-wide survey by the end of 2025.

In the 2020 survey, 29% of respondents were non-male:

https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/eas2020-demographics

In the 2022 survey, 34% if respondents were non-male:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AJDgnPXqZ48eSCjEQ/ea-survey-2022-demographics

Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source: The market will be resolved using the 2024 EA Community survey.
- Survey Value: The final percentage is set at 31%.
- Condition: This will apply unless someone raises an objection.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Effective Altruism

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1mo

Unless someone objects, I will resolve this to 31% from the 2024 EA Community survey. This is the survey I originally had in mind, but I wasn't sure that it was going to happen.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/z4Wxd2dnTqDmFZrej/ea-survey-2024-demographics

Can you explain how this resolution works? You ask for a number, but the resolution is YES or NO.

predictedYES 1y

@ErwinRossen Binary questions can be resolved to any percentage between 0 and 1. So if the correct percentage ends up being 10%, then the NO shares will pay out .9 and the YES shares pay out .1

Every time I see EA in these contexts I have to remind myself that it isn't Enrolled Agents...

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
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