On December 2025, will I be using two rationalist-endorsed drugs at least once a month?
On December 2025, will I be using two rationalist-endorsed drugs at least once a month?
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I am playing with the idea of using Melatonin https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4cKD9iTWHaE7f3AJ/melatonin-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know
If on December 2025 I am using monthly at least 2 drugs that are endorsed on Less Wrong or other personalities of the rationalist sub-culture, this market resolves to YES.
I do not use any drug today.
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I read the title and was thinking if it was shrooms, but melatonin... If you add caffeine it resolves to YES .
@FranklinBaldo https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y5DLPNc5h65g2BgqA/how-does-long-term-use-of-caffeine-affect-productivity
I think there is controversy around that drug
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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