Will Jimmy Carter be alive during a year with 0 cases of Guinea worm?
Will Jimmy Carter be alive during a year with 0 cases of Guinea worm?
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Jimmy Carter has famously donated large sums of money to eradicating Guinea worm. Will he achieve this dream in his lifetime?
Currently there are 0 cases reported for 2024. If there are 0 cases finalised in 2024, resolves YES. If Carter survives into 2025, 26,.....2050, if on at least one of those years 0 cases of Guinea worm are reported, will resolve YES.
If he dies in 2024, it will resolve NO if a Guinea worm case is reported. Will resolve for provisional cases but may unresolve if they are later reclassified.
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A case has been reported for a human in 2024:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_dracunculiasis#:~:text=As%20of%20June%202024%2C%20there,to%20be%20reported%20in%20animals.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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