Will Grok 4 achieve over 69% on SimpleBench
7
Ṁ56Aug 10
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Grok 4, xAI's latest AI model, has demonstrated significant improvements over its predecessors. SimpleBench is a benchmark designed to evaluate AI models on spatio-temporal reasoning, social intelligence, and linguistic adversarial robustness. As of July 2025, Grok 4 has not been publicly tested on SimpleBench. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Grok 4 achieves a score above 69% on SimpleBench. Verification will be based on official announcements from xAI or SimpleBench's leaderboard updates. SimpleBench Leaderboard
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
SOTA is Gemini 2.5 Pro (06-05) at 62.4%, and new models have generally improved by 1-3 %points
Related questions
Related questions
How well will Grok 4 do on Frontier Math?
-
Will Grok 4 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
27% chance
Will Grok 3.5 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
1% chance
Grok 4 in top left of Artificial Analysis' cost to run vs intelligence chart?
4% chance
Open-source OpenAI model beats Grok 4 on LMArena?
6% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench benchmark?
-
Will Grok 4 be listed on the Chatbot Leaderboard in July?
98% chance
What is Grok 4 Heavy's performance on METR's task length evaluation?
What is Grok 4's performance on METR's task length evaluation?
Grok 4 before 2026?
99% chance