Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...
Basic
4
๐472026
61%
Medium or higher on Cybersecurity
50%
High or higher on CBRN
47%
High or higher on Persuasion
54%
Medium or higher on Model Autonomy
This market matches OpenAI's pre-mitigation preparedness scores from the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
This market will use AI Digest as its resolution source.
Each answer is independent and will resolve to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score fulfilling each answer's requirements.
Which AI systems count?
Any AI system publically reported (not neccessarily released) by OpenAI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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