Resolves to the political party of the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election, as decided by the below market, unless the winner runs as an independent (ie, does not get nominated by either the Democratic or Republican parties).
In that case, regardless of the candidate's party affiliation, the market will resolve Other.
Manifold Politics reserves the right to add additional answers to this market, in case that appears helpful, but all such answers can be bet on currently by voting Yes on Other.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ85,892 | |
| 2 | Ṁ80,706 | |
| 3 | Ṁ45,199 | |
| 4 | Ṁ34,489 | |
| 5 | Ṁ33,226 |
System marked me as BUY for democrats. Clearly didn't. I have the screenshots somewhere in the archive where I bought republican.
@DavidAttenborough This is the sick behavior of you sir! We all know you voting for the democrats and are afraid new administration is finding these records. You are not getting out of the camp so easy, and the screenshotting can always being altered. Nice try!
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Who the fuck are you again? You've just glommed on to my posts across comments and are following me around now in the comment section?
Wheres that shrek meme, "they judged me before they even knew me."
Living rent free in your fucking head.
@DavidAttenborough I responded to two of nonsensical harebrained comments you are making in the markets comment public sections. I know of what not you speak of!
I am getting my mail ballot today and there I see Trump, but there is no option for Biden? Is this the elections fraud everyone is talking about? I cannot believe it!!!
@CryptoNeoLiberalist It's okay if you mark an X instead of a V next to Trump's name they'll read that as a vote for Biden
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Biden dropped out of the race and Kamala Harris is now the Democratic Party's candidate. Biden will not show up on the ticket.
Closing my position in this market since I think the longshorman union strike is going to negatively reflect on biden and therefore harris. I suspect we've found our october surprise. I don't think this puts kamala harris below coinflip odds since the president has a lot of latitude to end or delay the strike but 53% is probably a few percentage points too high.
To be clear: If the winner is a member of the Democratic Party, but not the Democratic nominee, this resolves as Other?
@ZaneMiller yeah, I'm pretty sure the author meant the party that nominated the candidate. It is not written clearly in general, but the specific case asked about above is clearly called out in its own sentence.
I wonder who will win, the annoying, passive aggressive alcoholic wine lady or the larger than life, 2x assassination attempt surviving cultural icon? Hmm very tough, I need to see polling
@FoxKHTML I wonder who will win, the law student turned attorney general turned senator turned vice-president or the guy who wants to start a paramilitary group, doesn't know the difference between trade deficit and public debt, and thinks asylum seekers come from mental asylums? I actually don't know, Americans have been acting really weird lately.
@FoxKHTML Neither.
Trump doesn't drive, so you will be chauffeuring the guy around, not going to a road trip with him. He'd probably insist on sitting in the back, take control of you stereo and jam YMCA for 6 hours. He'll leave behind a ton of McDonalds wrappers and other trash. He might tip you at the end but he's not paying for gas. He'll say something like, "just send me a bill" and never pay that bill.
Harris will spend 10 minutes trying to get to know you and spend all the rest of the time on the phone getting shit done, so no music, podcasts... you get to listen to her on the phone. She's going to be too busy to drive, so you're the chauffeur again. She's going to ask to stop at every vegan grocery and spice shop so she can canvas voters. The car will smell much better and she will clean up after herself but it will still be a grueling trip.
I don't vote for presidents based on the assumption I'm going to spend any amount of personal time them. But, based on your scenario, I'm voting for the person who doesn't consistently screw over the people who decide to spend personal time with him.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00